Democratic presidential candidates, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt, and Hillary Clinton are locked in a fight for the Black vote. (AP Photo/Morry Gash, File)
For Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, winning South Carolina’s Democratic primary on Feb. 27 is crucial to their chances of winning the presidential nomination—and Black voters, who represent more than 50 percent of the electorate, are going to be the key deciders of their fate.
Clinton has long been considered the heir-apparent to President Barack Obama and the frontrunner in the Democratic contest, but Sanders has been nipping at her heels—the Vermont senator lost by a hair’s breadth in the Iowa caucuses and captured a double-digit win in New Hampshire.
Clinton is depending on Black voters to deliver a victory in South Carolina, and, so far, polls suggest that’s what they’ll do. A CNN/ORC International poll released Feb. 16 shows Clinton leading Sanders 56 percent to 38 percent among South Carolina voters — and that lead is fueled by Black voters. Sanders leads 54 percent to 40 percent among White voters in the state, Clinton leads 65 percent to 28 percent among Blacks.
Still, the outcome is not yet etched in concrete. According to the CNN/ORC poll, Sanders support among South Carolina Democrats has surged 20 percentage points from 18 percent back in October, and there is still room for his numbers to grow. About 40 percent of Democratic voters polled say they are still undecided, and another 16 percent say they are leaning toward a candidate but not firmly decided.
The unpredictable variable, some experts say, could be a generational divide between older and younger Black voters.
“There are always generational schisms in American politics and African-American politics is no different,” said Michael Fauntroy, associate professor of political science at Howard University in Washington, D.C.
Todd Shaw, an associate professor of political science and associate director of African American Studies at the University of South Carolina, said while he has no firm numbers, an anecdotal trend has emerged from his discussion with students.
“Students whom I have spoken to if they’re leaning toward anyone, they’re leaning toward Sanders,” he told the AFRO.
That inclination reflects trends seen in the presidential contest thus far: In New Hampshire, for example, 83 percent of voters aged 18-29 and 78 percent of first-time voters chose Sanders over Clinton, according to CNN exit polls.
The generational divide in support for Clinton and Sanders among Black voters is somewhat evident in the endorsements both campaigns have received. Clinton, for example, has garnered backing from older Black leaders such as the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC. Meanwhile, Sanders recently gained the nod from former NAACP president Benjamin Jealous, who at 35 became the youngest president of the civil rights organization.
Older and younger Black voters are attracted to different qualities in the candidates: Clinton’s backers hail the former senator and secretary of state’s experience in framing policy, her poise in the political arena and her long ties to the Black community.
“We must have a president who is knowledgeable on both domestic and foreign policy,” said CBC Chairman Rep. G.K. Butterfield ( D-N.C.), during the PAC’s endorsement announcement on Feb. 11. “We must have a president who understands the racial divide, not someone who just acquired the knowledge recently.”
He added, “We need a president who doesn’t simply campaign and promise wonderful things – things that are politically impossible to achieve.”
Younger Black voters, however, do not share the collective memory and “emotional” connection with the Clintons as their older counterparts and seem to connect with Sanders’ seeming challenge of the status quo and his unvarnished, sincere style, Shaw said.
“Younger voters are trusting and seeing Sanders as being the ‘real deal,’ and he has not been hobbled by the kind of scandals that surrounded the Clintons,” Shaw said.
In endorsing Sanders Jealous told the AFRO, Sanders has been “principled, courageous, and consistent” in fighting the evils of racism, militarism and greed while Clinton has “wavered, flip-flopped and faltered” on those issues.
The establishment vs. anti-establishment dynamic between Clinton and Sanders is somewhat reflective of her 2008 race against Barack Obama.
“This is not a race that is exactly like what happened in 2008 but there are some parallels. It took quite a few months before Hillary Clinton’s edge among African-American voters started to bleed away toward Obama. He had to win a few primaries before they began to take him seriously,” Shaw said.
However, Shaw added, it is unlikely Sanders will be able to mobilize and energize the same coalition Obama did in 2008 and 2012—especially with his criticism of the president’s leadership in a recent MSNBC interview.
Still, a victory in South Carolina and elsewhere is not totally out of the question.
“I suspect Clinton will win, but I believe Sanders will make a solid showing and bite into Clinton’s support there,” Shaw said of Sanders’ chances in South Carolina. “I can’t see him overtaking Clinton, but if he does – if he wins South Carolina – he’s on his way to the nomination.”
